How SlateSense Works

Everything you see on the dashboard explained in one place.

The big picture

SlateSense runs a factor-based model on every upcoming game across MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, and UFC. Each matchup gets scored on dozens of signals — team records, recent form, injuries, pitcher matchups, weather, rest, line movement, and advanced stats — and the model surfaces the picks where one side has a meaningful edge.

On top of that, a Sharp AI chatbot has all the same live data baked into its context, so you can ask it about any bet and get an analysis grounded in the same signals.

The pick card

Pick team + market

The team and bet type the model recommends. Market label is usually Moneyline (just winner) or Spread (winning by X points or losing by fewer).

Confidence (0–99)

Summary of how strong the factor evidence is on this pick. Tiers: 80+ Strong, 65–79 Moderate, 50–64 Lean, below that Slight. Picks below 42 aren't shown.

Market Prob

Consensus no-vig win probability implied by every sportsbook's odds. This is what sharp money says, not our model — treat it as an independent sanity check on the pick.

Edge

Gap between our market probability and the best available line on the market. Positive edge means you're getting a better price than the consensus fair value.

Best line

The best American odds across all tracked sportsbooks at the time picks were generated. Cited book name is where to take the bet.

What drives each pick

Expanding a pick card shows the full factor list — the signals that added or subtracted points from each side. Categories:

Record and scheduling

Overall win rate, home/away splits, scoring margin, streaks. Plus rest: NBA/NHL back-to-backs, NFL short weeks, bye weeks.

Recent form

Hot/cold streak over the last 7 days, recent scoring margin.

Injuries

Filtered to roster-relevant positions. MLB pitchers are excluded from the general count since they only start every few days — that's handled separately.

MLB pitching matchup

Probable starters' season and last-3-starts ERA. Season weighted higher than recent form. Fetched from MLB's official Stats API.

Team quality (MLB/NHL)

Team-level advanced stats: MLB OPS and ERA, NHL goals for and against per game, special teams.

Weather

Open-Meteo forecast at kickoff for outdoor NFL and MLB games. High wind, cold, and rain hurt passing/scoring. Dome games ignore weather entirely.

Line movement

Spread delta from opening to current across bookmakers. Steam on Pick means sharp money has moved the line toward our side; Line Moved Against is the opposite warning.

My Bets

Tap + Save Bet on any pick card to track it. Saved bets show up under the My Bets tab in two groups — Pending (games haven't finished) and Settled (final score recorded and the bet graded).

Record

Wins–Losses–Pushes across all settled bets.

Win Rate

Wins divided by wins+losses. Pushes don't count either way.

P&L

Running profit and loss in units across settled bets. One unit is your base stake. Wins pay out according to the odds locked in at save time.

Track Record

The Track Record page is the public version of our model's performance — every pick we've generated gets snapshotted and graded automatically.

Best-Line ROI

Return if you'd bet 1 unit per pick at the best available odds at pick time. This is real-world P&L.

Fair-Price ROI

Return against the consensus no-vig fair price. Measures pure model edge — wins above or below what the market expected. Lower than Best-Line ROI unless line shopping adds nothing.

Confidence Calibration

Whether high-confidence tiers actually hit more often than low tiers. A well-calibrated model shows win rate rising monotonically with tier.

Sharp AI chat

Tap the chat bubble anywhere on the dashboard. Sharp AI has all the live data in its context — odds, pitchers, weather, line movement, team stats, and the latest picks. Ask anything.

Upload a betslip screenshot

Tap the paperclip icon, pick a screenshot of a parlay from DraftKings, FanDuel, or any sportsbook. Sharp AI reads each leg, matches it against live data, and grades them one by one with an overall confidence.

Suggested prompts

On a fresh chat, pill buttons offer good starting questions — tap one to send it immediately.

Responsible betting

SlateSense is a tool, not a guarantee. No model wins every bet, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own research.

If gambling is impacting your life, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.